High pressure has been dominant this summer leading to hot and dry weather, particularly across England and Wales.
There’s been no significant rain in southern England for around two months which has led water levels in our rivers and reservoirs to drop significantly. All of Wales and most of England are in drought.
However, through this week high pressure will be replaced by the influence of low pressure and more unsettled conditions.
Some light rain is likely on Monday, mostly across northern areas of the UK.
Into Tuesday and Wednesday this will turn heavier and start to move into southern England.
While rain is therefore finally going to fall across the south, it may become more showery. This means the exact location and distribution of rainfall is still uncertain.
And while of course any rain will be welcome, it won’t bring much improvement to conditions.
It will take weeks of above average rainfall into the autumn to make any significant changes to the drought.
However, it is likely to make a big difference to the emergency services who have been battling against the extreme weather and wildfires over the last few weeks.
The fire severity index – how severe a fire could be, should one start – will come down to low or moderate, according to forecasts from Natural England and the Met Office.