Senior figures in Reform say they did price in both scenarios that have since played out: other parties saying they won’t stand and some seeking to delay the by-election until after the completion of the ongoing inquiry into Farage by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards.
The Liberal Democrats have suggested the government should delay appointing Farage to one of the Crown roles a departing MP has to occupy in order to leave the Commons.
Clearly, the risk for ministers in doing this would be to play into Reform’s argument that what they see as “establishment” parties are blocking their right to a democratic race.
Let’s unpack the pros and cons of this move from Farage’s perspective.
Clearly, less than 24 hours on from his announcement, the downside for him is triggering what some will see as a pointless by-election that his main opponents are avoiding.
Is causing a race involving Count Binface, the Monster Raving Loony Party and not many others the action of a prime minister in waiting? Convention says no, but then again convention has had a rum time of it in recent years.
On the upside for him, Farage has had his back against the wall for a couple of months now, facing an avalanche of questions about money and transparency.
It has suffocated his capacity to do what he loves – be out in front of the cameras all the time, shaping and often leading the national debate.
This is the act of a man perhaps running out of better ideas.
If a by-election was likely anyway, as a potential consequence of the standards commissioner’s inquiry, Reform has concluded why not have one now – and argue to the people of Clacton that the other parties care so little about their corner of Essex that they are not even willing to take part in the election.
It was even suggested to me that this first by-election would be a useful data collection exercise for Reform in case there is another by election, should Farage later to be found to have broken the rules by the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner.
Folk on the Essex coast should be prepared for attention, cameras and ballot boxes.
It is far from certain whether the coming weeks and months will embolden or strengthen Farage, or serve to emphasise the tight spot he is already in.